Qatar's Role in Mediating the Israeli-Hamas Hostage Crisis
In the wake of the tragic hostage situation in southern Israel, orchestrated by Hamas on October 7, 2023, the spotlight of diplomatic efforts has turned to Qatar. The fate of over 200 civilians is, to some extent, in the hands of the small Gulf state. Why? Simply because Qatar is playing a unique role as the primary mediator between Israel and its arch-enemy, Hamas.
Both the U.S. President, Joe Biden, and the UK Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, have expressed gratitude to Qatar and its ruling emir for their current role in negotiating the release of four hostages. Israel's National Security Advisor also joined in the appreciation on Wednesday.
Qatar is confident that, with time, patience, and persuasion, it can negotiate the release of dozens more hostages in the coming days. However, any Israeli ground incursion into the Palestinian territory of Gaza would make this task much more challenging.
Among these hostages, Qatari officials believe, there are non-Israelis and individuals with dual nationality. It is expected that Hamas will seek to hold onto the Israeli military personnel it has abducted, hoping to exchange them for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.
But this undertaking also comes with serious risks for Qatar. As the horrifying details of Hamas's attack on Israel have emerged, questions have arisen about why this Western ally in the Middle East, which hosts a U.S. military base, is providing a space for the political wing of an organization designated as a terrorist group by the UK, the U.S., and others.
If Qatar's efforts in the future prove largely fruitless, its position in the Western world may be compromised, and pressure could mount on Qatar to shut down the Hamas office on its soil.
To say that these negotiations on hostages are delicate would be an understatement. Israel is still reeling from Hamas's brutal attacks on that fateful day of October 7 when armed men breached its territory by crossing the border fence, resulting in the deaths of approximately 1,400 people.
Gaza is home to 2.3 million Palestinians and Hamas's military wing, which has governed the territory since 2007. The Strip has endured over two weeks of almost uninterrupted Israeli airstrikes, claiming over 5,000 lives so far, according to the Hamas-led Ministry of Health in Gaza. The UN is urgently calling for a ceasefire.
Israel has vowed to dismantle Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by the UK, the U.S., and other nations. It is not surprising, then, that both parties require a mediator.
So, how do these hostage negotiations work? Qatar hosts the political leadership of Hamas, which has had an office in the capital, Doha, since 2012, headed by its leader, Ismail Haniyeh.
Amidst the gleaming glass and steel skyscrapers of modern Doha, Hamas officials have been sitting down with Qatari diplomats from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to work on the intricate matter of hostage release.
I've been informed that Qatari mediators are not newcomers to this. They belong to a special government department that oversees the relationship with Hamas in Gaza, and Qatar has been annually providing hundreds of millions of dollars to keep Gaza's infrastructure and public administration running.
Many Qatari officials have been to Gaza and are well acquainted with senior Hamas figures. Unlike its Gulf neighbors, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, Qatar does not have formal diplomatic relations with Israel. However, there are secondary channels of communication, and at critical moments during discussions on hostages, Qatari officials have been able to speak by phone with their Israeli counterparts.
There are many factors at play here. Hamas appears to gain little from the release of its hostages, but the organization, an Arabic acronym for the Islamic Resistance Movement, has already faced criticism for kidnapping women and children. Some analysts believe Hamas wants to rid itself of these hostages, and possibly other foreigners, sooner rather than later. "It's bad PR for them," says Justin Crump of the strategic consultancy Sibylline. He notes that keeping the location of so many hostages hidden from Israel, as well as providing them with food and care during a war, must be a significant logistical challenge for Hamas.
However, Qatari officials assert that the release of hostages buys time for Hamas. With so many families in Israel and elsewhere desperate to secure the release of their loved ones through peaceful means, pressure is mounting on the Israeli government to postpone its highly publicized ground incursion into Gaza. It is generally assumed that when it begins, it will be talked about no more.
The Challenge of Delivery
Then there is the mechanics of the releases. As expected, Hamas has kept them hidden in underground tunnels. The few who have been released were handed over to the International Committee of the Red Cross.
But transporting up to 50 people or more, as has been mentioned, would require a pause in the nearly relentless airstrikes. Hamas would like to turn that pause into a ceasefire. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government has pledged to continue this war until Hamas is destroyed and, therefore, is reluctant to grant the group any form of respite.
This is not the first time Qatar has emerged as a valuable mediator. For years, it hosted a de facto embassy for the Taliban when the militant group was out of power in Afghanistan. I remember reporting on this in 2013 when the Taliban infuriated the Afghan government in Kabul by hoisting their white flag inside their compound in Doha. Although the U.S. and its allies were at war with the Taliban, it was actually in Washington's interest to have a door to find them for talks, leading to the controversial 2020 peace agreement that paved the way for the chaotic Western withdrawal from Kabul the following year.
Residents of Doha used to marvel at the sight of burly, bearded Taliban commanders, dressed in their shalwar kameez, taking their wives shopping at the latest Western fashion boutiques in Doha's air-conditioned malls.
In Iraq and Syria, Qatar has used its well-connected intelligence contacts to secure the release of certain hostages held by the self-proclaimed Islamic State (ISIS). More recently, this year, Qatar negotiated the return of four Ukrainian children to their families, allegedly kidnapped by Russia, following a request from Ukraine for Qatar to mediate with Moscow on their behalf.
All of this makes Qatar a valuable partner for many countries, some of which have been figuratively knocking on its door while seeking its assistance in getting their people out of Gaza.
But Qatar was already walking a diplomatic tightrope even before this crisis. Its success in this conflict will largely depend on whether it can de-escalate the dire situation in Gaza and fulfill its efforts to secure the release of as many hostages as possible.
